MM’s PICKS – ROUND FIVE
Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne Tigers
Wednesday 21 October, Distinctive Homes Dome, 7:30pm (local)
TV: Fox Sports One, coverage begins 8:00pm AEDT
Radio: ABC Adelaide, stream available online from 8:00pm AEDT
Projected Starters
36ers: John Gilchrist, Cortez Groves, Nathan Herbert, Jacob Holmes, Adam Ballinger
Tigers: Luke Kendall, Daryl Corletto, Sam Mackinnon, Mark Worthington, Daniel Johnson
Bench
36ers: Brad Hill, Darren Ng, David Cooper, Matthew Burston, Chris Molitor
Tigers: Nathan Crosswell, Tommy Greer, Ryan Bathie, Tim Lang, Matt O’Hea
Current Record
36ers 2-2, 5th; Tigers 1-3, 8th
Recent Form
36ers: Lost 80-110 to Wildcats @ Perth
Tigers: Lost 86-98 to Blaze @ Gold Coast
It just goes from bad to worse for the Melbourne Tigers.
Not only do they suffer an ignominious defeat to the Blaze on the Gold Coast in front of a national television audience last Wednesday, they lose key backup forward Ben Knight for potentially the rest of the season to a shocking knee injury.
The Knight Rider went in for surgery to repair the ruptured quad tendon in his right knee during the week, and by all accounts it went well, so let’s hope he manages to make a full recovery and is back sooner rather than later.
But it leaves the already undermanned Tigers with an enormous hole to fill in the meantime. This experiment with the All Australian lineup would seem to be doomed because, quite simply, what we saw from the Tigers didn’t for the most part resemble a competitive NBL squad against the Blaze – they have got to rethink their strategy if they even want to sniff the playoffs this season.
As great a player as Mark Worthington is – and he was brilliant on the Gold Coast – he’s being asked to do too much and it’s time to go get him some help, because Sam Mackinnon is looking like he’s lost a step and Luke Kendall is playing out of position in this offence.
For their part, Adelaide got embarrassed in Perth last Saturday, blown out by 30 in one of the more one-sided games we’ve seen in the legendary Sixer-Wildcat rivalry.
They allowed a season-high 16 three pointers on just 31 attempts, gave up nine offensive boards to a team that shot the ball at an impressive 55% from the field, and turned it over 19 times to a Wildcat unit that feasted on every mistake.
There were some worrying signs for the 36ers, not least of which was a defence that leaked like the proverbial sieve. They don’t have anyone in their squad you would call a standout defender so it’s all about getting the scheme right and the players to buy into it – based on Saturday’s effort you’d say that ain’t happening right now.
Another problem is what they are getting out of shooting guard Cortez Groves – right now, it’s not very much. As an import more is expected of ‘Tez’, and a four point return on just 2 of 10 shooting from the field isn’t going to cut it.
But at least the Sixers are at home for this one, a venue where they are at a minimum 50% better than what they’ve shown on the road to date this season. They’ll have that crowd behind them who’ll get on the officials unmercifully, they’ll play with a lot more freedom and energy, and you’d expect more of a focus at the defensive end of the floor.
Melbourne has lost three straight, and the road for them isn’t getting any easier – after this one they’ll take on the Wildcats in Perth and that looms as their graveyard considering their present form.
In order to compete in this one they have to do a better job on the glass, deny the Adelaide shooters from the kind of easy open looks Gold Coast were getting last Wednesday, and they have to improve their transition D otherwise the Sixers will run them right out of the gym.
Adelaide will look to spread the floor and run a lot of isolations for John Gilchrist – he was well-held in Perth but the Tiger guards are nowhere near as strong defensively as the Wildcats and the Sixers can exploit Melbourne’s weakness in that area.
I expect Adam Ballinger to have a night out, Groves to be a lot more effective and Adelaide to light it up from the perimeter.
It’s way too early to call this a crisis for Melbourne, but another couple of losses and the hill they have to climb will start to look like a mountain, regardless of whether they know Chris Anstey will be there eventually to save the day. Simply put, they need a W in a hurry.
I don’t see how this dramatically undermanned version of the Tigers gets that W here though. Adelaide will come out with a point to prove after last week’s humiliation, and I think they have too much talent, offensive firepower and overall experience for the Tigers.
The 36ers get a fairly comfortable win in this one.
Matt’s Prediction: 36ers by 10
New Zealand Breakers vs Townsville Crocodiles
Thursday 22 October, North Shore Events Centre Auckland, 7:00pm (local)
TV: Fox Sports One, coverage begins at 5:00pm AEDT
Projected Starters
Breakers: CJ Bruton, Awvee Storey, Oscar Forman, Tony Ronaldson, Rick Rickert
Crocodiles: Corey Williams, Peter Crawford, Cameron Tovey, Stephen Hoare, Rolan Roberts
Bench
Breakers: Paul Henare, Dillon Boucher, Thomas Abercrombie, Corey Webster, Alex Pledger
Crocodiles: Russell Hinder, Kelvin Robertson, Brad Williamson, Jeff Dowdell, Todd Blanchfield
Current Record
Breakers 2-3, 6th; Crocodiles 3-2, 2nd
Recent Form
Breakers: Lost 65-76 to Hawks @ Wollongong
Crocodiles: Won 101-91 vs Blaze @ Townsville
Breaker coach Andrej Lemanis was not a happy camper last Saturday night.
He had just seen his team blow a six point lead and get completely overrun in the fourth quarter by the Wollongong Hawks, and then had to front up to the media post game and answer questions as to why, yet again, his team failed on the road, where they are now 0-3 on the season.
So upset was the New Zealand mentor, he even pointed out to yours truly that I had incorrectly written in the Breaker season preview that he had just two winning seasons during his five years in charge of the league’s first and only international team.
Of course he’s correct – this is his fifth season, so his record is better than perhaps it read in the preview. Thus, mea culpa Andrej – but the fact remains this season is one where a lot is expected of you and this group and more than ever there’s a lot of pressure to get this thing right.
To his great credit, Coach Lemanis didn’t use the easy excuse of the absence of Kirk Penney to explain away his team’s capitulation – what he admitted were the main factors for the defeat are the things that have been a constant for this outfit over the past few seasons.
That includes an inability to keep guys off the foul line at crunch time – the Hawks had 19 trips alone in the final period. And a lack of poise on the road – with the home team making a run fuelled by the spectacular Tywain McKee, the Sandpit crowd got as loud as I’ve heard it in many years and New Zealand, for whatever reason, just didn’t deal with that well at all.
Coach Lemanis pointed out that the home teams have so far had a big advantage this season so he would be looking for that trend to continue as his group faces up against the hottest team in the league right now.
Townsville are coming off a closer than it should have been victory over the Blaze at the Swamp, in a game where they were cruising, up by 24, but allowed the Gold Coast to storm back into it and have a shot at the improbable comeback win.
It was a concern they gave up such a huge margin to a team they were handling so easily, but still, they righted the ship in time and won pretty comfortably in the end.
Of course, it helps when you’ve got the competition’s most lethal weapon, Corey ‘Homicide’ Williams, running the show for you.
Williams was at his scintillating best last Friday, slicing and dicing his way through a helpless Blaze defence for 37 points, seven boards and four assists, befuddling them with a consistent midrange game – the book on him is to lay off and let him shoot it but even that didn’t work – and getting to the rack basically whenever he wanted to.
Homicide is going to be a nightmare for the Breakers to defend, and he’ll have plenty of help, with Rolan Roberts inside, Peter Crawford running the lanes, Russell Hinder providing excellent frontline support and Stephen Hoare quietly going about his business of helping his team win ballgames.
I really don’t know what to make of the Breakers. There were times last week against the Hawks that their defence was so good you didn’t know how Wollongong would find a way through it. And then there were other times where they didn’t close out to shooters and couldn’t stay in front of anyone.
Going home is an obvious plus for them, and you’d expect them to bounce back hard after that horrendous fourth quarter effort last week. But they don’t look great up front, Awvee Storey is not giving them any decent offensive production and they are asking CJ Bruton to carry way too much of the load.
If they can’t limit Williams’ effectiveness and don’t keep Roberts off the boards they will be in for a long night, and they need guys like Rick Rickert and Oscar Forman to step up.
In the end, despite this being on New Zealand’s home floor, I can’t go past the Crocs. I think Townsville just poses too many matchup problems for a Breaker squad that is missing Kirk Penney desperately, and while I do think it will be close, I expect Corey Williams to be the deciding factor and Townsville to steal a vital win on the road.
Matt’s Prediction: Crocodiles by 4
Gold Coast Blaze vs Cairns Taipans
Friday, 23 October, Gold Coast Convention Centre, 7:30pm (local)
Projected Starters
Blaze: Adam Gibson, James Harvey, Erron Maxey, Mika Vukona, Pero Cameron
Taipans: Julien Mills, Phill Jones, Gary Boodnikoff, Dusty Rychart, Ian Crosswhite
Bench
Blaze: Ayinde Ubaka, Anthony Petrie, Chris Goulding, Greg Vanderjagt, Tyson Demos
Taipans: Aaron Grabau, Richard Melzer, Kerry Williams, Dwayne Vale, Tony Rampton
Current Record
Blaze 2-4, 7th; Taipans 3-2, 4th
Recent Form
Blaze: Won 98-86 vs Tigers @ Gold Coast; lost 91-101 to Crocodiles @ Townsville
Taipans: Bye in Round Four
Season Series
Taipans lead 1-0
It was hard not to be impressed by the Blaze in their 98-86 home win over the Melbourne Tigers on Fox Sports last Wednesday.
For the most part, they played with great spirit and energy, buoyed by a small yet vocal home crowd and fuelled by a pair of spectacular performances.
And for once, it wasn’t James Harvey supplying the fireworks – rather import Erron Maxey, who was active and aggressive all night, finishing with 29 points and seven rebounds; and youngster Chris Goulding, who played with that typical fearlessness we are seeing from a lot of the NBL’s great young players this season as he finished with a career-high 17 in 24 minutes.
Not that Harvey was quiet by any means – he finished with a solid 15 including a few of his patented baseline jumpers – but the pleasing thing for Coach Joey Wright was the fact the Blaze didn’t have to rely on him as much as usual. If they can get him that kind of consistent help, this will become a dangerous ballclub in the second half of the season.
Wright wouldn’t have been happy to see his team so thoroughly dominated 48 hours later in Townsville, especially in the first half, but he would have been very heartened by the way they stuck to the task and fought back extremely well, led by dynamic scoring guard Ayinde Ubaka, whose 21 points and five assists nearly helped the Blaze to what would have been an unlikely triumph.
The Blaze face a Taipans outfit coming off a week’s rest and challenged by their coach Aaron Fearne to get tougher on the road.
Fearne understands that road wins are precious in this league, and you cannot afford to waste any opportunities when you have a chance to grab one. Cairns had that chance a fortnight ago in Wollongong, but lost a grinding contest mainly because they just couldn’t make shots when they absolutely had to.
They are going to need to shoot the ball well in this one, because Gold Coast has a high-powered offence built to exert some serious scoreboard pressure. Maxey, Ubaka and Harvey are all free scorers at their best in the open floor, while Adam Gibson will set the table and Mika Vukona and Pero Cameron will do the heavy lifting inside.
The Taipans will need a big contribution from Rich Melzer off the bench, while Gary Boodnikoff and Phill Jones are going to have to knock down some threes and Julien Mills must prove he can supply some decent offensive output for Cairns to get the W.
There’s lots to like about a Gold Coast team that is starting to get themselves an identity. Sure, their defence needs to improve if they want to be taken seriously as an upper echelon ballclub, but they can flat-out score the ball and if they can get this thing into a wide-open transition battle it’s hard to see the Taipans keeping up with them.
I think the Blaze will run and stun their way to an impressive victory here.
Matt’s Prediction: Blaze by 10
Cairns Taipans vs Adelaide 36ers
Saturday 24 October, Cairns Convention Centre, 7:30pm (local)
Projected Starters
Taipans: Julien Mills, Phill Jones, Gary Boodnikoff, Dusty Rychart, Ian Crosswhite
36ers: John Gilchrist, Cortez Groves, Nathan Herbert, Jacob Holmes, Adam Ballinger
Bench
Taipans: Aaron Grabau, Richard Melzer, Kerry Williams, Dwayne Vale, Tony Rampton
36ers: Brad Hill, Darren Ng, David Cooper, Matthew Burston, Chris Molitor
Current Record
Taipans 3-2, 4th; 36ers 2-2, 5th
Recent Form
Taipans: Bye in Round Four
36ers: Lost 80-110 to Wildcats @ Perth
Season Series
Taipans lead 1-0
This is the second game in a month between the Taipans and 36ers, and both teams are on the back end of a weekend double – with Cairns getting just 24 hours to recover after what figures to be an up and down battle on the Gold Coast.
So that negates the home court advantage at the Snakepit to a degree – especially with an Adelaide team coming in that should be fairly well rested after a Wednesday night meeting with the fading Melbourne Tigers.
The 36ers will be looking for revenge after the Taipans handled them convincingly in their first meeting this season, offsetting a near triple double from Sixer floor general John Gilchrist thanks to a balanced attack, with five players hitting double figures on the scoresheet.
That kind of production across the floor is what Coach Aaron Fearne will be looking for in this matchup against an Adelaide team yet to look convincing on the road despite their overall talent.
The Gilchrist-Skip Mills duel will be a key – Mills hasn’t been that impressive to date while Gilchrist for the most part has shown he is an elite ballplayer at this level, and he torched the Snakes the last time he played in this gym. Adelaide is not a great defensive unit so this is a chance for Mills to breakout and put some points on the board.
Rich Melzer is the kind of big, athletic forward that tends to give the Sixers problems and I’d expect to see him log serious minutes, while Phill Jones has played very well at the two spot for the Taipans and is very dangerous coming off screens and nailing the perimeter jumper – you go underneath on the on-balls and he’ll make you pay.
The last time Adelaide played the Snakes, Matty Burston produced an impressive double double and 36er head coach Scott Ninnis would love to see more of the same – the problem is Burston is struggling through the pain of an injured hand and understandably hasn’t been as effective recently.
Adelaide’s blueprint is simple – they must control the glass, run wherever possible and spread the floor. Expect a lot of isolations when Cairns are in man, especially when Gilchrist has the ball, with the likes of Ballinger and Darren Ng spotting up for the drive and kick.
Cairns will look to control things in the halfcourt and try to squeeze the life out of the 36ers defensively, and they’ll focus on dominating a questionable Adelaide interior D.
I’ve tossed this one around a few times – part of me says this is a danger game for the Taipans even at home on short rest; the other part says don’t be a sucker and take the 36ers on the road where they’ve been ordinary all season.
It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve taken a gamble on the Sixers to get a pair of wins in a round, so even though I’m not convinced of their ability to get the job done on the road, I don’t rate Cairns that highly and I think fatigue catches up with the Taipans in the second half. Call it Adelaide in a thriller.
Matt’s Prediction: 36ers by 2
Wollongong Hawks vs Townsville Crocodiles
Saturday 24 October, WIN Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm (local)
Projected Starters
Hawks: Tywain McKee, Mathew Campbell, Glen Saville, Larry Davidson, Cameron Tragradh
Crocodiles: Corey Williams, Peter Crawford, Cameron Tovey, Stephen Hoare, Rolan Roberts
Bench
Hawks: David Gruber, Tim Coenraad, Tim Behrendorff, Rhys Martin, Daniel Jackson
Crocodiles: Russell Hinder, Kelvin Robertson, Brad Williamson, Jeff Dowdell, Todd Blanchfield
Current Record
Hawks 3-1, 1st; Crocodiles 3-2, 2nd
Recent Form
Hawks: Won 76-65 vs Breakers @ Wollongong
Crocodiles: Won 101-91 vs Blaze @ Townsville
If someone had told you three months ago that a quarter of the way through the season the Wollongong Hawks and Townsville Crocodiles would be the top two teams in the league and that this battle would be the standout Game of the Week, you’d have regarded that person with more than a little incredulity.
Maybe not because the Crocs were going to be that good – after all they had the league’s most explosive player and an impressive offseason recruiting drive – but there’s no way you would have expected the Hawks to be as impressive as they have been in the early stages of their 09/10 NBL campaign.
They’ve opened up with three straight home wins against Perth, Cairns and New Zealand – none better than their come from behind victory over the Breakers at a raucous Sandpit last Saturday night.
Stifled in the second and third quarters by the Breakers and down six with ten minutes left, Wollongong showed tremendous character to storm past the visitors with a 30-13 final period that had ’em dancing in the aisles at the WIN Entertainment Centre.
It was a complete team effort, as Gordie McLeod pointed out in the post game press conference. But the truth be told, it doesn’t happen unless the sensational Tywain McKee puts the team on his back in a sublime fourth quarter performance.
The import point guard started it with an incredible four point play that had 3600 people jump to their feet as one. He attacked the Breaker D mercilessly, forcing them to put him on the line time and again. He completely shut down CJ Bruton, who had torched the Hawk D in the third and figured to carry New Zealand to the win.
All told, McKee scored 10 consecutive points as part of a blistering 21-2 Wollongong run, finishing with 23 on the night after being constantly harassed by no fewer than five Breaker defenders in the opening 30 minutes.
Coach McLeod may hate me saying this, because he has constantly emphasised the importance of team over the individual, but it’s exactly McKee’s brilliance that makes this Hawks-Crocs matchup so compelling.
You would pay money to see Ty McKee do his thing. And you know that Corey Williams brings people through the doors. So to have these two go head-to-head, with Wollongong putting their unbeaten home record on the line – now that, my friends, is what you call a mouth-watering prospect.
Notwithstanding the Williams-McKee subplot, this should be a hell of a battle between what right now is the best offensive unit in the league against the best defensive team in the NBL. The old irresistible force meeting the immovable object.
Rolan Roberts is going to present a low post nightmare for Cameron Tragardh and Larry Davidson – both of whom have been outstanding early this season. Peter Crawford is going to try and run the aging legs of Matty Campbell into the ground. And Stephen Hoare will attempt to use his smarts and veteran guile against the experience and athleticism of Glen Saville.
Conversely, look for the Hawks to move the ball up the floor quickly wherever possible and get the ball in McKee’s hands for some penetrate and dish action – or he can just go to the rack and launch those Rajon Rondo-like floaters of his. The one thing Wollongong has to be wary of however is too much standing around watching McKee operate – their offence bogged down at times because of that last Saturday.
This one is so tough to call. The Hawks have been on a tear in their home gym and are playing with tremendous confidence right now; Townsville believes when they play up to their ability no one in the league can go with them, especially when Williams is in all-out attack mode.
The big thing in Wollongong’s favour is that the Crocs will have travelled across the Tasman and have just 48 hours to recover after what figures to be a draining game in Auckland, and their stamina will be tested on the backend of a road double.
For that reason primarily, I’m tipping the Hawks to stay unbeaten at home – Williams will get his, but the Hawks will withstand a Townsville offensive barrage to get the W with McKee once again leading the way.
Matt’s Prediction: Hawks by 5
Perth Wildcats vs Melbourne Tigers
Sunday 25 October, Challenge Stadium, 4:00pm (local)
Projected Starters
Wildcats: Damian Martin, Kevin Lisch, Stephen Weigh, Shawn Redhage, Luke Schenscher
Tigers: Luke Kendall, Daryl Corletto, Sam Mackinnon, Mark Worthington, Daniel Johnson
Bench
Wildcats: Martin Cattalini, Jesse Wagstaff, Brad Robbins, Drew Williamson, Sam Harris
Tigers: Nathan Crosswell, Tommy Greer, Ryan Bathie, Tim Lang, Matt O’Hea
Current Record
Wildcats 3-2, 3rd; Tigers 1-3, 8th
Recent Form
Wildcats: Won 110-80 vs 36ers @ Perth
Tigers: Lost 86-98 to Blaze @ Gold Coast
Talk about a brutal stretch for the Melbourne Tigers.
This game against Perth, on the backend of a modified Doomsday Double, is part of a sequence of four games in just ten days, with three of those on the road.
For a team that is suffering a serious manpower shortage, the next few games are going to test their mettle and then some.
Publicly, Melbourne coach Al Westover is confident his team can turn it around and get a much-needed W – privately the Tigers know other teams are licking their chops at the prospect of facing the four-time champs in such a wounded state.
You better believe one of those teams is the Perth Wildcats, riding high after their extraordinary demolition of the Adelaide 36ers in front of a howling, sold-out Jungle last Saturday night.
They blew the Sixers right out of the gym with a devastating perimeter display – knocking down 16 treys at a better than 50% clip – and coupled that with a lockdown defensive effort as they hardly gave the Adelaide shooters room to breath in what must have seemed to the 36er hierarchy like 40 minutes of hell.
Seven Cats scored in double figures in the massacre, led by rising star Stephen Weigh who knocked down 18 points in his 27 minutes on the floor. And here’s the scary part – no one on the roster got more than Weigh’s 27 minutes game time and all 12 players hit the floor on the night.
That’s the kind of contribution right through the roster Wildcat coach Rob Beveridge has been looking for. Even with Paul Rogers almost certain to miss the rest of the season, Perth still has the horses to be a major threat in this league, especially when they are nailing their perimeter shots with near-impunity and can spread the load offensively.
If they keep up that kind of form, Melbourne is going to have their hands full trying to stay with the Cats.
This is a bad matchup for the Tigers in so many ways. For starters, Bevo will sic Damian Martin on to Luke Kendall because he is well aware Martin has given the Melbourne guard absolute fits in the past.
Luke Schenscher is going to be a tough cover for young Daniel Johnson and Tim Lang in the low block – and when Perth goes to the bench Jesse Wagstaff will be there to provide hustle and a presence on the glass.
Of course, the big individual matchup is between a pair of old adversaries – Shawn Redhage and Mark Worthington – and you gotta know that Jungle crowd will be all over Wortho. The fans in that place have long memories and they’ll no doubt make the Melbourne star public enemy number one.
I’ve said before that one of the interesting stories of the early going in the National Basketball League has been that Perth, a team seemingly built to take advantage of their size has instead been more of a standout on the perimeter. If they can keep that going, and add a solid interior game down the track, they will become a frightening prospect indeed.
I just can’t see any way Melbourne gets close to the Wildcats in this one. Perth will be well-rested, at home, and playing with a ton of confidence; Melbourne is tired, beat-up and wondering where their next win is going to come from.
This is a rough time to be a Tiger fan. Perth gets this easily.
Matt’s Prediction: Wildcats by 16