Gold Coast Blaze vs Melbourne Tigers
Wednesday 14 October, Gold Coast Convention Centre, 6:30pm (local)
TV: Fox Sports Two, coverage begins 7:30pm AEDST
Projected Starters
Blaze: Ayinde Ubaka, James Harvey, Erron Maxey, Mika Vukona, Greg Vanderjagt
Tigers: Nathan Crosswell, Luke Kendall, Sam Mackinnon, Mark Worthington, Daniel Johnson
Bench
Blaze: Adam Gibson, Anthony Petrie, Pero Cameron, Tyson Demos, Chris Goulding
Tigers: Ben Knight, Daryl Corletto, Tommy Greer, Ryan Bathie, Tim Lang, Matt O’Hea
Current Record
Blaze 1-3, 8th; Tigers 1-2, 7th
Recent Form
Blaze: Lost 66-83 to Taipans @ Cairns; Lost 84-89 to Wildcats @ Perth
Tigers: Lost 74-79 to Breakers @ New Zealand; Lost 68-103 to Crocodiles @ Melbourne
How long will it be until Melbourne pulls the trigger and gets themselves an import this season?
That has to be the question being asked by the Tiger faithful after they watched their beloved team crash and burn over last weekend with a pair of dispiriting losses.
It was bad enough they blew a 14 point lead and fell to a New Zealand Breakers team on Thursday missing Kirk Penney, but Saturday was probably one of the lowest points this franchise has seen in the past decade.
Melbourne faced up to a Townsville club on the end of a back to back road double and were summarily crushed – the 101-68 defeat the worst ever suffered at the Cage by the Tigers during Coach Al Westover’s highly successful tenure.
Sure, you could make the case that they were tremendously undermanned without the likes of Nathan Crosswell and Tommy Greer in the lineup. But that doesn’t excuse what was an extremely poor effort based on the incredibly high standards set by this organisation.
They are struggling mightily in the backcourt at both ends of the floor and were exposed defensively by a rampant Crocs outfit – that has to be fixed in a hurry if they are to remain an elite team in this league – and while it may be simplistic to say their troubles are due solely to Chris Anstey’s absence, it does bring into sharp focus the fact this ballclub is missing a ton of firepower right now and an import who can put up some numbers would help to alleviate that.
As for the Blaze, their 1-3 record is probably a fair reflection of where they are right now, although their performance on the road against Perth, where they just about took the Wildcats right to the wire in the gym most consider to be the toughest in the L showed this team has promise.
True, they looked horrible on national television Wednesday night in Cairns, but you could forgive them to a degree given the fact they suited up just eight players and were without import Ayinde Ubaka.
Still, new import forward Erron Maxey showed enough to suggest he will be productive at this level, even though he is slightly undersized. And his 23 point, 10 rebound performance against a much bigger Wildcat frontline on Friday night was very impressive. Maxey is athletic, he’s got the long arms and he looks like he plays with a lot of energy so the Blaze may have got themselves a good one this time.
This one is very difficult to get a handle on. On paper, the Tigers still have a bit more talent and experience than the Blaze, who are still searching for an identity. And you have to believe that Melbourne will respond after their embarrassing performance against Townsville.
But the Gold Coast does present some matchup problems for the Tigers, particularly in the backcourt, where Ayinde Ubaka and James Harvey could do some major damage. Maxey will be a tough cover up front, and Mika Vukona’s toughness on the boards will be a factor.
Melbourne cannot afford Mark Worthington to struggle as much as he did against the Crocs, although he was by no means on his lonesome in that game. In general, they need more production from their other bigs Ben Knight, Daniel Johnson and Tim Lang – they cannot rely on Wortho and Sam Mackinnon to carry the load every night.
Townsville showed the blueprint to beating the Tigers – press up the court defensively, run on every miss, and spread the floor on offence. Gold Coast has the athletes to carry out that gameplan and it will be interesting to see whether Coach Joey Wright decides to unleash his guys and goes right at a Tiger outfit lacking some confidence right now.
It’s a very rare thing to see an Al Westover ballclub lose three straight, but I do believe the Blaze are catching this team at precisely the right time and I think they cause the mini-upset here.
Matt’s Prediction: Blaze by 5
Townsville Crocodiles vs Gold Coast Blaze
Friday 16 October, Townsville Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm (local)
Projected Starters
Crocodiles: Corey Williams, Peter Crawford, Cameron Tovey, Stephen Hoare, Rolan Roberts
Blaze: Ayinde Ubaka, James Harvey, Erron Maxey, Mika Vukona, Greg Vanderjagt
Bench
Crocodiles: Russell Hinder, Kelvin Robertson, Brad Williamson, Jeff Dowdell, Todd Blanchfield
Blaze: Adam Gibson, Anthony Petrie, Pero Cameron, Tyson Demos, Chris Goulding
Current Record
Crocodiles 2-2, 4th; Blaze 1-3, 8th
Recent Form
Crocodiles: Lost 89-90 vs 36ers @ Adelaide; Won 103-68 vs Tigers @ Melbourne
Blaze: Lost 66-83 to Taipans @ Cairns; Lost 84-89 to Wildcats @ Perth
Boy, the Blaze are going through one hellacious stretch of games right now.
Last week they did a phenomenally long Cairns-Perth road trip in 48 hours; this week they face the Melbourne Tigers at home and then have to travel up north to face the suddenly deadly Townsville Crocodiles, who sent a message to the rest of the league with their stunning annihilation of the Tigers at the Cage on Saturday night.
That they beat the Tigers – for the first time in Melbourne since December 2003 no less – was one thing, the fact the 35 point blowout came less than 24 hours after their emotional one point defeat to the Adelaide 36ers was a real eye-opener.
It took a clutch basket from Sixer floor general John Gilchrist to beat them in Adelaide, but the Crocs weren’t to be denied in Melbourne, dominating from start to finish on the back of a spectacular performance from Corey Williams and some brilliant perimeter shooting from Russell Hinder and Brad Williamson.
If that’s the type of effort we can expect consistently from Townsville, then this team might finally be the one to get North Queensland its first National Basketball League championship.
Gold Coast will have their hands full trying to stop Williams, and an even scarier proposition will be how they deal with the inside powerhouse that is Rolan Roberts, who will make Greg Vanderjagt’s life a misery in the low post.
Townsville’s Michael Cedar is out for a month so that gives Peter Crawford the opportunity to start for the Crocs and his matchup with James Harvey will be one to watch, while Gold Coast’s depth will be once again tested on the second leg of this double, especially if the home team gets the kind of production from their reserves they enjoyed in the Melbourne win.
Hinder threw down a challenge to Williams last week to be the MVP of the league and Williams responded with two outstanding games last week. If he maintains that form the rest of the season this Crocs squad is going to be tough to deal with.
And given I think ‘Homicide’ is going to have a big one at home this Friday and the Crocs should continue their hot form from the perimeter, it’s impossible to go past Townsville in this one.
The Crocs will come out full throttle, determined to put on a show for the Swamp faithful, and whilst the Blaze will keep it close for a while, I see them getting overwhelmed by a Townsville offensive assault in the second half. Crocs win this one going away.
Matt’s Prediction: Crocodiles by 19
Perth Wildcats vs Adelaide 36ers
Saturday 17 October, Challenge Stadium, 7:00pm (local)
Projected Starters
Wildcats: Damian Martin, Kevin Lisch, Martin Cattalini, Shawn Redhage, Luke Schenscher
36ers: John Gilchrist, Cortez Groves, Nathan Herbert, Jacob Holmes, Adam Ballinger
Bench
Wildcats: Jesse Wagstaff, Stephen Weigh, Brad Robbins, Drew Williamson
36ers: Brad Hill, Darren Ng, David Cooper, Matthew Burston, Chris Molitor
Current Record
Wildcats 2-2, 6th; 36ers 2-1, 2nd
Recent Form
Wildcats: Won 89-84 vs Blaze @ Perth
36ers: Won 90-89 vs Crocodiles @ Adelaide
The big story this week was the expected announcement of the retirement of the Wildcats’ captain Paul Rogers after he suffered yet another injury – this time a torn triceps, which at the very least will end his 09/10 season prematurely.
Should this be the time he decides to hang em up, the seven footer and 2000 NBL Most Valuable Player will leave the game after a fine career that spanned over 200 games in Australia’s elite competition, an NCAA tournament appearance with Gonzaga University and two Olympic Games.
His loss is huge on so many levels for this ballclub, but it does give Coach Rob Beveridge the opportunity to go after another import to help solidify what is already a fairly strong unit – it will be interesting to see which way he goes, whether he looks to improve his backcourt depth or add to his big man stocks.
Perth got the W against a gutty Gold Coast Blaze team last week thanks to a superlative effort from new captain Shawn Redhage, who dominated the scoresheet with 32 points at an efficient 12 of 17 from the field.
Redhage is a difficult matchup for anyone in this league when he is in that kind of form and the Cats will be hoping for more of the same from the Arizona State product.
The other good news for Perth was the form of youngsters Stephen Weigh and Jesse Wagstaff, who gave Redhage excellent support and helped to cover for veteran Martin Cattalini, who is struggling with a neck injury and was ineffective in limited minutes.
The Perth-Adelaide rivalry is arguably the best you’ll find in the National Basketball League – these two great franchises have been at each other for over 20 years and have won a combined eight NBL titles between them.
This figures to be one heck of a battle, what with the 36ers coming off a terrific win at home over Townsville, where they survived a huge comeback from the Crocs to get the win thanks to a clutch John Gilchrist jumper with less than a pair of ticks on the clock.
The battle between Gilchrist and Corey Williams was every bit as good as advertised, with both coming up big for their respective teams. The Sixers will come into this one knowing they have a big advantage – at least on paper – in the backcourt, with Gilchrist and Cortez Groves looking to ask the tough questions of a Wildcat guard corps that really hasn’t produced all that much to date.
The other question mark will be how Perth decides to defend Adam Ballinger, especially if the 36ers play him predominantly in the five spot. He has too much quickness for Wildcat centre Luke Schenscher and can take him all the way out to the perimeter, so the onus will be in the Cats to mix things up defensively and try to disrupt Ballinger’s rhythm.
Like every Wildcat-36er ballgame, this is incredibly difficult to call. Both clubs are coming off victories, both have strengths the opposing team will find tough to overcome, and both should come in with plenty of confidence.
It’s a question of who do you like more? Adelaide’s backcourt – which by the way features one of the best perimeter shooters in the league in Darren Ng – or Perth’s ultra-deep frontline with Schenscher anchoring the middle and Redhage roaming freely?
Real flip of the coin stuff this – but in the end I’ll go with the home team at that phenomenal gym of theirs in what will be a classic.
Matt’s Prediction: Wildcats by 3
Wollongong Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers
Saturday 17 October, WIN Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm
Projected Starters
Hawks: Tywain McKee, Mathew Campbell, Glen Saville, Larry Davidson, Cameron Tragardh
Breakers: CJ Bruton, Kirk Penney, Awvee Storey, Oscar Forman, Rick Rickert
Bench
Hawks: Rhys Martin, Tim Coenraad, David Gruber, Daniel Jackson, Tim Behrendorff
Breakers: Tony Ronaldson, Dillon Boucher, Thomas Abercrombie, Paul Henare, Corey Webster
Current Record
Hawks 2-1, 1st; Breakers 2-2, 5th
Recent Form
Hawks: Won 71-59 vs Taipans @ Wollongong
Breakers: Won 79-74 vs Tigers @ New Zealand
“It was a grind.”
So said Hawks’ coach Gordie McLeod after his team outlasted the Cairns Taipans last Saturday in a game that could charitably be called ugly. In fact it was so bad the over under on the media bench was 60 after halftime – as in, would either team reach 60 points on this night?
Still, Wollongong survived and showed some nice adjustments after the Taipans were determined to not let Tywain ‘All Day’ McKee beat them – in the first quarter they threw a double team at the Hawks’ mercurial point guard every time he touched the ball and Cairns’ coach Aaron Fearne admitted later it was their primary defensive strategy.
McKee didn’t deal well with the pressure initially, but the longer the game went on the better he was and he wound up leading his team with 20 points, six boards and five steals. His matchup with CJ Bruton, who singlehandedly dragged his team past the Tigers last week with a brilliant 32 point performance, will be crucial to the outcome of this one.
But one player does not make a team, and as McLeod stated in the postgame press conference it was going to be a complete team effort that will make the Hawks successful – that, and a commitment to the defensive end of the floor where they collapsed the middle extremely well and outhustled the Taipans to every loose ball.
That kind of effort is going to hold Wollongong in good stead this season, especially if Larry Davidson shows up and crashes the offensive glass like a madman – he had six against Cairns and worked his tail off all night long.
The Breakers will be sweating on the fitness of reigning league MVP Kirk Penney – he missed the Melbourne game with a back injury and his status is questionable for this one. If he can’t go, the Breakers will likely go big again with Awvee Storey moving to the two and veteran Tony Ronaldson coming in as the starting four man.
New Zealand is still in prove it to me mode, as far as winning on the road is concerned. They are 0-2 so far travelling across the Tasman, and until they show they are a consistent force away from home they still have a question mark over their credentials this season, no matter how talented they might be.
I love the McKee-Bruton matchup in this one and another individual battle to keep your eye on is Rick Rickert versus Cameron Tragardh, while the Hawks will look to isolate Glen Saville on Oscar Forman as often as possible in an effort to expose Oscar’s mediocre D.
I think New Zealand will come out hard in this game and try to put the Hawks to the sword early. If they allow this one to turn into another slugfest it will play right into the hands of the home team, who when it comes right down to it boast one of the league’s genuine game-breakers in McKee.
Very tough to call, but I’ve gone with the Hawks in their two home games so far and I think they’ll continue their winning run at the Sandpit – I just don’t trust the Breakers to do the job on the road right now, especially if Penney is out.
Matt’s Prediction: Hawks by 4